COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF 2015 AND 2019 ELECTION VOTING STRENGTH IN PLATEAU STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

This study compares the voting strength of Plateau State, Nigeria, during the 2015 and 2019 general elections. The study unitized secondary data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), National Population Commission (NPC) and supplemented it with spatial data integrated through Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The dataset provided estimates and projections of the population for each ward spanning the years 2015 and 2019. To ensure compatibility with GIS software, the population data were organized in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and saved as a CSV file, streamlining integration into the analytical workflow. The findings reveal significant demographic changes in Plateau State, with an overall increase of 13.3% from 2015(4,265,999) to 2019(4,832,437), correlating with a rise in registered voters from 2,021,046 to 2,480,455, a 22.7% growth. This highlights the importance of monitoring population dynamics for electoral management. Mikang (29.02%) and Riyom (26.77%) LGAs exhibited more pronounced growth, this uneven population growth necessitates that electoral management bodies, particularly the Independent National Electoral Commission, adjust polling unit allocations accordingly to ensure equitable access to voting opportunities. Notably, disparities in voter engagement were observed across LGAs, with Jos South and Shendam showing substantial increases in turnout, while Jos North experienced declines. The analysis highlights the impact of demographic changes, local political dynamics, and voter mobilization efforts on electoral participation. The study recommends targeted campaigns to educate voters about civic engagement, a review of polling unit allocations to improve accessibility and the adoption of electronic voter registration to enhance transparency. By implementing these recommendations, stakeholders can create a more inclusive and transparent electoral environment in Plateau State, thereby, strengthening democracy in Nigeria.